Manager, Forecasting

Job Overview

Kardigan is hiring a Manager, Forecasting to turn data into the insights that guide strategic and operational decisions across our portfolio. Sitting within the Portfolio Strategy team, you will own how patient / revenue forecasts get built, synthesized and communicated.

This position will collaborate closely with Insights & Analytics teams to provide input on key data points to gather from primary and secondary market research across patients, physicians, and payers. The role partners broadly across the organization, including Portfolio Strategy, Corporate Strategy, Product Strategy, Commercial, Clinical Development, Medical Affairs, Regulatory, R&D, Program Management and Business Development.

Success here depends on analytical rigor: framing ambiguous questions, pressure-testing the underlying data, and reconciling signals that arrive from very different sources. The position also requires business acumen and a deep understanding of pharmaceutical operations to ensure the successful development, launch and growth of our products. The position is based in Evanston, IL.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities

• Lead forecasting across the portfolio, building the projection models behind both active programs, indication expansions, and prospective candidates
• Partner with Finance and Portfolio Strategy to deliver forecasts for the long-range plan, annual operating plan and budget cycles, ensuring alignment of assumptions across functions
• Ad hoc forecasting and analytics in partnership with investor relations to inform board meetings, earnings calls, and investor discussions
• Support business development activities by forecasting revenue opportunities for prospective asset candidates
• Partner with competitive intelligence to evaluate competitor clinical results and anticipated market dynamics; translate key findings into impacts on internal forecasts
• Own forecast governance, including documentation of assumptions, version control, reconciliation of actuals versus forecast, and tracking and improving forecast accuracy over time
• Analyze secondary data, including patient claims and epidemiology studies, alongside market research findings to characterize patient populations, determine market segmentation and uncover trends
• Build and maintain patient-flow and scenario models, running sensitivity analyses against target product profiles, clinical outcomes and launch timing to quantify risk and upside for decision makers
• Track how pricing, payer behavior and coverage hurdles are shifting, and feed these inputs into pricing and market access strategy
• Provide demand and volume forecasts to support launch readiness, supply planning and manufacturing, and commercial resource decisions such as field force sizing
• Identify emerging trends and areas of unmet need within priority disease areas to inform portfolio prioritization
• Raise the standard for how analytics are completed, choosing the right data assets, vendors and methods for the question at hand and codifying what works
• Present and discuss forecasts, assumptions, insights and recommendations with internal stakeholders and senior leadership; mentor junior analysts as the function grows

Qualifications and Preferred Skills

• Bachelor's degree required and a minimum of 5 years of consulting, investment, marketing, consulting, forecasting, or agency experience in healthcare/biopharmaceuticals. MBA or advanced degree preferred.
• Forecasting and Modeling: Proficiency in data analysis and financial modeling, including forecast, valuation and scenario models.
• Data and Market Research: Experience conducting and/or evaluating secondary data sources and primary market research, with the ability to interpret complex scientific and market data, identify key trends and extract meaningful insights.
• Collaboration: Ability to effectively collaborate across multiple functions and with internal and external stakeholders of various backgrounds and skill sets. Skilled in establishing a collaborative and respectful environment.
• Communication: Writes and presents with clarity, and can make a complex analysis land with scientists, commercial leaders, and executives alike.
• Industry Knowledge: Deep familiarity with the healthcare landscape - managed care and payers, patients, providers, biopharma companies, and the technologies and disease-area trends reshaping them.
• Strategic Thinking: Strong strategic thinking with the ability to synthesize market data, customer insights and scientific information into actionable recommendations.
• Business Excellence: Strong project and process management skills including the ability to manage multiple projects, set priorities and meet deadlines.
• Critical Thinking: Strong critical thinking and structured, problem-solving skills.
• Agility: Comfortable operating in a fast-moving, often ambiguous environment, and adapts as priorities shift.

Exact Compensation may vary based on skills, experience and location.

Pay and benefits

Pay range $142,000—$185,000 USD